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The New and Improved UpstartIQ Model - Cleaner Inputs and Outputs
UpstartIQ used to treat revenue like one big bucket. Everything got blended together, which made the model simple… but not very accurate. A lot has changed since then. Now the framework splits revenue into two distinct categories that behave very differently: 1. Non-Core Revenue — Where Things Get More Complex This is the portion of the business driven by balance-sheet mechanics and servicing economics, not borrower flow. Upstart now models: Net interest income as a percenta
Henry Dierkes
8 hours ago3 min read


Upstart Q3 2025: Speed Bumps, Strong Signals
Editor’s note for investors/builders: Upstart just delivered one of those quarters that looks messy at first pass and more interesting the closer you get. What actually happened? Upstart posted $277M in revenue (+71% YoY), an 11% GAAP net margin, and 26% adj. EBITDA margin. That’s a healthy P&L—just shy of their own revenue guide. The miss wasn’t demand; applications hit a three-year high (2M+). It was the model tapping the brake: approvals came in tighter, average loan size
Henry Dierkes
Nov 104 min read


UPST Q3 TL;DR — Fear’s Loud, Data’s Louder
Q2 proved the model isn’t dead (102% YoY revenue growth, swing to GAAP profit). The stock still got crushed on balance-sheet optics ($600M convert, R&D loans for new products) and a later-corrected delinquency scare. Heading into Q3 (Nov 4), the tape is hypersensitive to funding durability and how fast credit risk moves off balance sheet . (See BTIG correction and UMI context in the charts on pp. 8–10.) UPST Q3 Earnings Preview What changed under the hood Mix is diversifying
Henry Dierkes
Oct 282 min read


Upstart Trustpilot Index (UTPI)
Download the in-depth report 👇 After a late-August wobble, UTPI’s 28-day moving average ripped from 20.1 to 31.7—up 57.7% in just over...
Henry Dierkes
Oct 104 min read
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