Upstart Trustpilot Index (UTPI)

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After a late-August wobble, UTPI’s 28-day moving average ripped from 20.1 to 31.7—up 57.7% in just over a month. Current UTPI: 31.71, up 2.4% since the start of Q3 and 69.4% YTD. Q3 saw 2,600 Trustpilot reviews (vs. 2,423 in Q2), and UTPI finally popped back above the trendline for the first time since early August.

Total review counts (and growth):

• Q3 ’24: 1,249

• Q4 ’24: 1,696 (+35.8%)

• Q1 ’25: 1,765 (+4.1%)

• Q2 ’25: 2,423 (+37.2%)

• Q3 ’25: 2,600 (+7.3%)

• Q4 ’25E: 3,166 (+21.8%)

What likely caused the early-August dip?

Short version: some seasonality, some mix shift, and maybe a brief funding or underwriting tighten-up. Longer version:

1. Seasonal softness. Google Search interest in “personal loan” rolled over in early August—industry-wide signal, not just Upstart.

   

   
   

2. “Laying off the gas” in newer verticals. Auto and HELOC may have been managed more deliberately while existing balance-sheet originations were sold.

3. Tighter underwriting. Nonprime auto stress at names like CarMax and Tricolor could’ve pushed Upstart a bit more conservative.

4. Short funding interruption. Any brief constraint would have capped originations temporarily.

And yet—Q3 reviews still grew 7.3% QoQ to 2,600, marking the fifth straight quarter of Trustpilot growth. The linear regression model pegs Q4 at 3,166 reviews (+21.8% QoQ). Recall Q4 2024 delivered +35.8% reviews and +35.1% revenue QoQ—holidays tend to pull demand forward. We’re nine days into Q4 and already at 351 reviews. Momentum matters.

How strong is the Q4 start?

For the first nine days of each quarter:

• Q1 ’25: 193

• Q2 ’25: 227 (+17.6%)

• Q3 ’25: 319 (+40.5%)

• Q4 ’25: 351 (+10.0%)

This is the strongest Day-1-to-Day-9 start since we began tracking. Can it hold? That’s the bet.

To hit the 3,166 linear-regression estimate, Upstart needs 2,815 more reviews over the next 83 days—33.92/day. That’s ~6.9% above today’s UTPI print (31.71) but ~13.0% below the 7-day moving average (38.96)—which is skating near all-time highs.

Being conservative, if UTPI just stayed flat at 31.71 for the rest of the quarter (illustrative only), Q4 would print 2,982 reviews: 351 already posted + (31.71 × 83) = 2,631. That’s +14.7% QoQ off Q3’s 2,600. Too early to declare victory, but the setup looks constructive.

Macro headwind check: UMI is elevated

The Upstart Macro Index (UMI) tracks how the macro backdrop hits defaults across Upstart-powered loans. UMI feeds straight into pricing—higher UMI → tighter approvals → fewer originations.

• August UMI: 1.611, implying defaults 61% above the long-run average. That’s a real headwind.

• Despite that, Trustpilot reviews and revenue have grown—impressive torque against macro drag.

• Also: despite BTIG’s caution, recent securitizations are showing solid credit performance in newer vintages.

The securitization trust chart compares 60+ DQ across vintages—newer curves look notably better than the 2021–2022 stress cohort.

UpstartIQ: translating reviews to revenue (and why mix matters)

Two dials matter big-time for the model:

• Review Rate (what % of originated loans show up as Trustpilot reviews)

• Revenue per Loan

Mix shift is real. Upstart is leaning more Prime, plus Auto, HELOC, and Small-Dollar Loans (SDL). In Q2, these newer products exceeded 10% of total originations for the first time. At the same time, Review Rate fell from 0.74% (Q1) to 0.65% (Q2)—likely because banks run more of the customer-facing flow for Auto/HELOC, while Upstart.com still concentrates personal loans (and thus most Trustpilot reviews).

Revenue per Loan has been grinding down as SDL scales. HELOC may offset later, but for now, SDL drag dominates. For context: Upstart originated $111M in SDL during Q2. If we (conservatively and explicitly) assume $700 average SDL balance (LLM-sourced, unsubstantiated), that implies ~158,000 SDL originations—~43% of the ~366,000 personal loans in Q2. Directionally: more SDL → lower average Rev/Loan.

Three scenarios (Q3)

• Conservative: Review Rate +10%, Rev/Loan –5% → $249.61M revenue.

  

  
  

• Baseline: Review Rate flat, Rev/Loan –2% → $270.38M revenue.

  

  
  

• Aggressive: Review Rate –5%, Rev/Loan flat → $290.41M revenue.

  

Range: $250–$290M. With management guiding $280M for Q3, the distribution skews to >50% probability of a miss on topline.

Important accounting clarification

All loans originated in a quarter count toward that quarter’s originations, transaction volume, and fee revenue—whether they’re later sold or kept on Upstart’s balance sheet. Selling those loans does not create a revenue tailwind; any fair-value marks run separately. Consider our prior “balance-sheet sale upside” notion officially corrected.

Stock context: UPST is >35% off since the Q2 print. A lot of fear is priced in, but if they don’t push Auto & HELOC R&D credit risk off-balance-sheet by year-end, there’s room for more downside.

Extending the framework into Q4

Baseline Q4: keep Review Rate flat in Q3 and Q4, step Rev/Loan –2% each quarter → $303.91M Q4 revenue.

Stack it up: H1 ’25 ≈ $470.4M + H2 baseline ≈ $574.3M = FY25 ≈ $1.044B—a hair under management’s $1.055B guide (~1% delta). That’s essentially “within striking distance,” with multiple levers for upside (UTPI momentum, mix normalization, balance-sheet clean-up).

Where we land

• UTPI re-accelerated hard post-August; Q4’s first nine days = 351 reviews (record start).

• Q3 reviews: 2,600 (+7.3% QoQ).

• Q4 review scenarios: Linear model 3,166 (+21.8%); flat-UTPI run-rate 2,982 (+14.7%).

• Macro isn’t friendly: UMI 1.61 keeps approvals tight, but Upstart is still growing originations.

• Model read-through: Q3 $250–$290M with a miss-skew vs $280M guide; Q4 baseline ~$304M.

• FY25 math: ~$1.044B, ~1% under the $1.055B outlook.

Bottom line: Upstart enters Q4 with real momentum but not much margin for error. They can still hit FY targets if UTPI strength holds, mix headwinds are managed, and balance-sheet risk is transitioned as promised.

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Disclaimer

This document is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security, strategy, or financial instrument. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date shown and may change without notice. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Consider your objectives, risk tolerance, and financial circumstances, and consult a qualified financial professional before acting on any information herein. Past performance is not indicative of future results.