What is the Upstart Trustpilot Index (UTPI)?

UTPI is a 28-day moving average of Upstart Trustpilot reviews. It acts as a real-time proxy for borrower activity and demand on the platform.

Why does UTPI matter for Upstart's revenue?

UTPI strongly correlates with Upstart’s core platform revenue by indicating how many borrowers are actively originating loans. Rising UTPI often precedes higher loan volumes.

What does the updated UpstartIQ model predict for Q4?

UpstartIQ’s scenarios range from $285M to $324M, with a baseline estimate of $304M—above Upstart’s $288M guidance and reflecting strong UTPI momentum.

How does UMI affect Upstart’s performance?

A falling UMI loosens the credit box and improves expected loan performance. The recent drop to 1.46—the lowest since May—supports higher approval rates and loan quality.

Why is insider buying important for investors?

Insider purchases—like CTO Paul Gu’s nearly $4M buy—can signal management’s confidence in future performance. While not predictive, it often aligns with improving fundamentals.

The New and Improved UpstartIQ Model - Cleaner Inputs and Outputs

Henry Dierkes
8 minutes ago
3 min read

UpstartIQ used to treat revenue like one big bucket. Everything got blended together, which made the model simple… but not very accurate. A lot has changed since then. Now the framework splits revenue into two distinct categories that behave very differently:

1. Non-Core Revenue — Where Things Get More Complex

This is the portion of the business driven by balance-sheet mechanics and servicing economics, not borrower flow. Upstart now models:

Net interest income as a percentage of management’s guidance
Servicing revenue based on historical quarter-over-quarter patterns

Neither of these is explained by Trustpilot behavior, which is why separating them out matters.

2. Core Revenue — Where Trustpilot Data Actually Matters

This is the part of the model that does respond to UTPI.

UpstartIQ breaks UTPI into several key pieces:

Review count
Review rate
Estimated loan originations
Revenue per loan (adjusted for product mix trends)

And that last piece—revenue per loan—shifts depending on the mix of:

Small-Dollar Loans (SDL)
Prime loans
Auto and HELOC products

Upstart’s business mix is changing quickly:

Prime loans (with lower take rates) are shrinking as a share
Auto, HELOC, and SDL products are expanding
SDL alone may account for roughly 47% of personal loan originations in Q3

When your product mix shifts, revenue per loan moves with it. That’s why you can’t just tie UTPI to total revenue anymore and expect a clean read on what’s coming.

So What Does the Updated Model Actually Predict for Q4?

With Trustpilot momentum strong and macro conditions easing, UpstartIQ lays out three scenarios:

Conservative — ~$285M

~3,000 reviews
Review rate: 0.65%
Revenue per loan: down 6.9%
Non-core revenue: softer than usual

Baseline — ~$304M

~3,075 reviews
Review rate: 0.63%
Revenue per loan: down 6%
Servicing revenue: up ~7.5%

Aggressive — ~$324M

~3,150 reviews
Review rate: 0.61%
Revenue per loan: down 5%

The baseline outcome—$304M—is the one to watch. It implies Upstart is positioned to beat guidance, and the report estimates more than a 50% probability that Q4 revenue exceeds $300M.

UMI: The Macro Barometer That Just Turned Friendly

UMI has been the quiet puppet master of Upstart’s entire year.

After spiking into Q3 and tightening the credit box, UMI has now fallen to 1.46—its lowest level since May. Several prior months were revised downward as well.

A falling UMI does two things at once:

Loosens the credit box going forward (more approvals, more volume)
Retroactively improves loans priced during periods of higher perceived macro risk

And UTPI is already reflecting that shift. Borrowers feel macro changes long before they show up in an earnings call script.

Insiders Are Making Their Bets (And They’re Not Small Bets)

Two clear signals stand out:

1. Girouard’s Messaging Shift

Dave Girouard brought back “Those Who Stay Will Be Champions” and has been openly bullish about Upstart’s future.

Execs generally don’t lean into motivational mantras when things are deteriorating.

2. Paul Gu’s Massive Insider Buy

Co-founder and CTO Paul Gu purchased 100,000 shares—nearly $4M—the largest insider buy in company history.

He explicitly framed it as a reflection of long-term conviction.

Insiders don’t accumulate large positions unless they believe the future looks stronger than the present.

So… What’s the Real Story Here?

When you step back and look at the whole picture:

UTPI is up nearly 90% year-to-date
Borrower demand is running well ahead of Q4 needs
UMI is resetting to mid-year levels
Insiders are buying at record scale
Executives sound noticeably more upbeat
UpstartIQ’s baseline scenario points above guidance

—you get a business that looks healthier underneath than the stock chart would ever suggest.

Nothing is guaranteed. Funding markets matter. Macro matters. And product mix shifts will always blur the edges.

But based on what we know today?

Q4 is tracking ahead of expectations. And once again, UTPI spotted the turn first.

Works Cited

Dierkes, Henry. Upstart Trustpilot Index (UTPI) 12/5/2025. Rebellionaire / Halter Ferguson Financial, 5 Dec. 2025.