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Diamond Hands Are Costing You Shares — Not Protecting Them

Bradford Ferguson · Rebellionaire · February 10, 2025

A framework for using Tesla's volatility to potentially grow your share count over time — instead of just surviving it. This is the idea behind everything we do at Rebellionaire.



The Idea in 60 Seconds


Tesla is one of the most volatile large-cap stocks in history. It regularly swings 40% or more in both directions — sometimes in a matter of weeks. Most long-term Tesla holders experience these swings the same way: they hold through the pain, hold through the euphoria, and end up with the exact same number of shares they started with.


They survive the volatility. They don't use it.


Trimming and adding is a framework — not a formula — for turning that volatility into a resource. Trim a small piece of your position when sentiment is euphoric and the stock feels bulletproof. Sit on that cash through the inevitable pullback. Add back when fear has taken over and the stock feels broken. If executed with discipline, you could end up with more shares over time than pure diamond hands would give you.


Same conviction in where Tesla is going. Different way of getting there.


Why this matters

If you held 1,000 shares of Tesla through 2022's 75% drawdown and came out the other side with 1,000 shares, you did something incredible. But you also watched your portfolio drop by hundreds of thousands of dollars without being able to act. The question isn't whether holding was brave. It was. The question is whether it was the best use of a stock that moves like this one does.


What Trimming Actually Means (And What It Doesn't)


When people hear "trim," they hear "sell." That's not what this is. Trimming in this framework means selling a small portion of your position — some people use a number like 10-20%, often less — during periods when sentiment has become extreme to the upside. You remain heavily invested. You are not exiting. You are not abandoning the thesis. You are creating optionality.


The cash you raise from a trim isn't profit-taking. It's dry powder. It sits there, doing nothing, looking wasteful — until the stock drops 30% and everyone else is panicking with no ability to act. That's when the cash becomes the most valuable thing in your portfolio.


This is the core distinction: a traditional investor sells to reduce exposure. A Rebellionaire trims to increase future share count.


What You're Actually Reading: Sentiment, Not Charts


This framework is not technical analysis. There is no moving average, no RSI threshold, no price target that tells you when to trim or add. Tesla ignores technicals for months, respects them for a week, then ignores them again. Anyone who tells you they have a formula for timing Tesla is either lying or about to learn an expensive lesson.


What does work — imperfectly, but consistently — is reading the mood. There are two distinct kinds of noise around Tesla, and both carry information that most investors ignore.


Wall Street noise. When Tesla runs, analysts raise price targets. When Tesla falls, they find reasons to sound smart about why it's falling — margins, competition, politics. They're not predicting. They're reacting to price and calling it insight. The useful signal here is the pattern itself: when the analyst community is uniformly bullish and tripping over each other to raise targets, that's worth noticing. When they're uniformly bearish, that's also worth noticing.


Community noise. This one is trickier, because it comes from people who share your conviction. When diamond hands memes peak, when "never sell" is everywhere on your timeline, when rocket emojis and position screenshots flood your feed — that feels like conviction, but it's often a contrarian signal. Crowd enthusiasm tends to peak near price highs. Not because the long-term story is wrong, but because emotion amplifies at extremes.


Now flip it. When long-time holders start texting "maybe this time is different," when group chats go quiet, when the people who've been bullish for years are suddenly hedging their language — that's often closer to a bottom. The mood itself is data. Most people feel it. Almost nobody acts on it.


How This Played Out in Real Life


This isn't theoretical. Tesla has given investors multiple complete cycles to work with. Consider the period from late 2021 through 2024 — roughly three years that illustrate every element of this framework.


In November 2021, Tesla traded above $400 per share (split-adjusted). The sentiment was extreme. Analyst upgrades were everywhere. The Tesla community was euphoric. Elon Musk was named Time's Person of the Year. Your uncle was asking about Tesla at Thanksgiving — that exact signal the framework watches for.


Over the next 13 months, Tesla fell roughly 75% — bottoming near $100 in January 2023. That is not a typo. The most talked-about stock in the world lost three quarters of its value. Diamond hands holders watched a $400,000 position become a $100,000 position, unable to do anything but wait.


Now consider two hypothetical investors, each starting with 1,000 shares in November 2021:


Diamond Hands

Trim & Add

Nov 2021 (~$400)

Holds 1,000 shares

Trims 15% — sells 150 shares, raises ~$60K cash

Jan 2023 (~$100)

Still holds 1,000 shares

Deploys $60K cash — buys ~600 shares

Result after cycle

1,000 shares

1,450 shares

That's a 45% increase in share count from one cycle. And Tesla has produced multiple cycles like this over its history. The math is illustrative, not a backtest — real execution wouldn't be this clean. You wouldn't catch the exact top or bottom. The point is the direction: even sloppy execution of the framework, trimming somewhere near highs and adding somewhere near lows, has the potential to compound your share count in a way that diamond hands never can.


A note on the math: This hypothetical assumes the trim was at a gain (long-term shares sold above cost basis) and ignores the tax impact of the sale for simplicity. In reality, the $60K raised would be reduced by capital gains taxes owed. The after-tax cash available to redeploy would be lower, which means fewer shares purchased at the bottom. Tax efficiency matters. See the tax section below.


The Trim Side: Easier Than You Think, Harder Than It Sounds


Trimming is the easier side of the framework to identify. The conditions are usually obvious in hindsight and recognizable in real time if you're paying attention. When Wall Street is raising targets into strength. When mainstream media is running Tesla stories. When your non-investor friends are suddenly asking about the stock. When the Tesla community feels invincible and any suggestion of caution is met with hostility.


The hard part isn't seeing it. The hard part is acting on it. Selling into euphoria feels like disloyalty. You are going against the community, against the momentum, against the feeling that this time it's different and the stock is going to $1,000 without stopping. That discomfort is actually the signal that you're doing it right. If trimming felt easy and obvious, everyone would do it and it wouldn't work.


The survivable risk is that you trim and the stock keeps running. You sold 15% of your position at $400. The stock goes to $500. You feel dumb. But you're still 85% invested and up significantly. That's a livable outcome. The unsurvivable risk is the alternative: you're 100% invested at $400, the stock drops to $100, and you have zero cash to deploy. You just watched the best buying opportunity in years and couldn't participate.


The Buy Side: Where Discipline Gets Brutal


If the trim side is about overcoming the fear of missing out, the buy side is about overcoming the fear of being wrong. And Tesla makes the buy side as painful as possible.


Here's the trap: you trimmed at $400. The stock drops to $350. Your brain says I nailed it — time to get back in. So you deploy your cash. Then the stock drops to $300. Then $250. Then $150. You've now used your dry powder on a dead cat bounce and you're sitting on an underwater add with no cash left. That's worse than diamond hands, because you took the psychological hit of trimming and got nothing for it.


Tesla doesn't do clean pullbacks. It drops 10%, rallies 8%, drops 20% more. The moves last longer than feels reasonable. This is why the framework emphasizes waiting for real fear — not the first dip, but genuine capitulation. Some people define that as a drawdown of 20% or more from a recent high. Others wait for sentiment signals: when "buy the dip" has been replaced by "how low can it go." When the podcasters who were bullish at $400 are suddenly making videos about whether Tesla can survive.


Sitting on cash while Tesla throws out rallies that look like bottoms — but probably aren't — takes more discipline than holding through a drawdown ever did. This is the part of the framework that separates people who understand the concept from people who can actually execute it.


The Tax Reality


Trimming creates a taxable event in non-retirement accounts, and the tax impact meaningfully affects the math. Three things to think through before acting:


Capital gains rates. If you've held your Tesla shares for more than one year, gains on the trimmed shares are taxed at long-term capital gains rates — 0%, 15%, or 20% depending on your taxable income. Shares held one year or less are taxed as ordinary income, which can be significantly higher. This means the holding period of the specific shares you sell matters. Most brokerage accounts let you select specific lots.


The wash sale rule. If you sell shares at a loss and repurchase the same stock within 30 days before or after the sale, the IRS disallows the loss deduction for that tax year. The disallowed loss gets added to the cost basis of the replacement shares, so it's deferred rather than eliminated — but it can complicate your tax planning. In most trimming scenarios, you're selling at a gain (trimming during euphoria, when prices are elevated), so the wash sale rule doesn't come into play. It becomes relevant if you're adding during a drawdown and then sell again at a lower price within 30 days. The rule also applies across all your accounts, including IRAs and your spouse's accounts.


Retirement accounts change the math entirely. If you hold Tesla in an IRA or 401(k), trimming and adding creates no taxable event. The framework is significantly easier to execute in tax-advantaged accounts. However, be careful: if you sell shares at a loss in a taxable account and repurchase in your IRA within 30 days, that loss may be permanently forfeited — not just deferred.


Tax considerations are one of the biggest reasons this framework benefits from working with an advisor rather than going it alone. The interaction between capital gains rates, lot selection, wash sale timing, and account type creates complexity that can meaningfully erode returns if handled carelessly. Everyone's situation is different.


Objections and Honest Answers


"What if I trim and it never comes back down?"


Then you sold a small slice of a winning position and the rest of your portfolio is up significantly. That's a livable outcome. The framework doesn't ask you to sell your entire position — you're trimming 10-20% at most. The risk of being 100% invested with no cash through a 40-75% drawdown is much harder to recover from than missing some upside on a small trim.


"Doesn't this underperform in a straight-up rip?"


Yes. If Tesla goes from $200 to $2,000 in a straight line with no significant pullbacks, diamond hands outperforms. But Tesla has never done that. Every major run has been punctuated by 30-75% drawdowns. The framework is designed for the stock Tesla actually is, not a hypothetical version that only goes up.


"Isn't this just market timing?"


Market timing implies precision and frequency. This framework is neither precise nor frequent. You're not catching tops and bottoms. You're skimming a little when things feel perfect and adding a little when things feel broken. You might execute this two or three times in a year, or less. And you remain heavily concentrated in Tesla throughout. This is closer to rebalancing based on sentiment than it is to active trading.


"I'll get killed on taxes."


Potentially, if done carelessly. This is why lot selection, holding period awareness, and account type matter. Trimming long-term shares at a gain incurs capital gains tax, but if that cash allows you to buy 30-50% more shares during a drawdown, the net share count gain can far exceed the tax cost. The math is worth running for your specific situation.


"My conviction is strong enough that I don't need this."


Conviction is the prerequisite, not the strategy. This framework exists because of conviction, not in spite of it. You believe Tesla is going much higher — great. Would you rather arrive at that destination with 1,000 shares or 1,400?


Teslanaire vs. Rebellionaire


There's a difference between these two words, and it's not about who believes in Tesla more.


A Teslanaire made money holding Tesla. That's real. Most people never got in, and the ones who held through 2022's drawdown showed conviction that most investors can't imagine. There is nothing wrong with being a Teslanaire. It's an extraordinary accomplishment.


A Rebellionaire figured out how to use the volatility. See through the noise from Wall Street and from the Tesla community. Trim when sentiment peaks. Add when fear takes over. Potentially end up with more shares while others just hold and hope.


Same belief in where Tesla is going. Different way of getting there.

Next time diamond hands are everywhere and the mood feels bulletproof, you'll notice it. And the next time Tesla drops 40% and everyone panics, you won't be stuck watching. You'll be ready.


That's the rebellion.


About Rebellionaire


Rebellionaire is a fiduciary financial advisory firm (a brand of Halter Ferguson Financial, based in Carmel, Indiana) that specializes in concentrated Tesla investors. Rather than forcing traditional diversification, we help clients optimize their Tesla positions through strategies including covered calls, LEAPs, and tactical trimming and adding. We serve clients nationwide.


If you're a Tesla investor sitting on a significant concentrated position and wondering whether there's a better way to manage it than just holding and hoping, we should talk.



This post presents a general educational framework, not personalized financial advice. Everyone's tax situation, risk tolerance, and goals are different. Trimming and adding involves risks including the possibility of selling at inopportune times, tax consequences, and the risk that repurchased shares decline further. Past stock price behavior does not guarantee future results. The hypothetical scenario presented is for illustrative purposes only and does not represent actual client results. Consult with a qualified financial advisor and tax professional before making investment decisions.


Bradford Ferguson is a financial advisor and co-founder of Rebellionaire. For more on Tesla investor psychology, sentiment, and strategy, subscribe to the Rebellionaire YouTube channel.

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