Tesla Q4 Isn’t the Story. The Model Is.

I’ll be upfront: Tesla’s Q4 earnings probably won’t move the needle.

Deliveries dipped. Margins look fine, not exciting. EPS will likely land close to consensus. If you’re waiting for a big quarterly shock, this probably isn’t it.

And that’s exactly why this quarter matters less than people think.

In the video above, Matt walks through a detailed Q4 earnings model for Tesla. The short version? The near-term numbers look… normal. But the exercise isn’t really about Q4. It’s about what happens after you stop obsessing over the next quarter and start modeling the business Tesla is trying to become.

The Q4 Setup (Nothing Wild Here)

Let’s start where Wall Street lives.

Based on deliveries, pricing, energy deployments, and cost structure, Q4 EPS likely lands somewhere in the mid-40s to high-40s cents range. That’s roughly where consensus already sits. There’s no obvious lever screaming “surprise.”

FSD purchase revenue is fading as Tesla shifts toward subscriptions. Energy continues to grow, but it’s still not large enough to dominate earnings. Automotive margins may compress slightly due to lower volume and fixed-cost absorption.

In other words: a normal quarter.

That’s why earnings alone won’t answer the question most investors are actually asking.

The Real Question: Why Does Tesla Trade Like This?

If you strip Tesla down to its current run-rate earnings, the stock looks expensive. Uncomfortably so.

That’s the bear case in one sentence.

But that framing quietly assumes something important: that Tesla’s future looks like its recent past. The moment you relax that assumption — even a little — the math changes fast.

This is where the model matters.

Why FSD Is a Headwind Before It’s a Tailwind

One subtle but important point in the model: FSD sales were a short-term sugar rush.

One-time purchases boost near-term profitability. Subscriptions smooth revenue but stretch it out over time. That transition creates a temporary earnings headwind, even if autonomy eventually becomes a massive profit center.

This is uncomfortable for quarterly narratives. It’s also very normal for platform businesses.

Investors focused only on the next few quarters tend to miss that dynamic entirely.

Robotaxi: Rounding Error… Until It Isn’t

In the near term, Robotaxi revenue is almost laughably small. A handful of vehicles. High costs. Negative margins. Financially irrelevant.

And that’s exactly what makes it easy to dismiss.

But the model isn’t asking whether Robotaxi “moves earnings” today. It’s asking a different question:

What happens if Tesla actually scales this?

When you start modeling fleet growth, price per mile, utilization, and take rates — even conservatively — the earnings curve bends hard. Not immediately. Not cleanly. But meaningfully.

This is also where timing risk shows up. Robotaxi can be real and slow. Both things can be true. That’s why near-term valuation feels so awkward.

Optimus: The Quiet Multiplier

Optimus is where the model gets uncomfortable for traditional valuation frameworks.

Not because the assumptions are aggressive — they aren’t — but because the addressable market isn’t a neat industry. It’s labor.

Even modest volumes at modest margins start producing numbers that dwarf familiar automotive line items. And that’s before layering in any software, services, or task-specific intelligence.

The model intentionally avoids an “uber-bull” scenario. No magical margins. No perfect execution. Just a plausible ramp with plenty of room to be wrong on both sides.

And even then, Optimus becomes material.

Why the Stock Feels Narrative-Driven (Because It Is)

Here’s the tension investors need to sit with:

• If Robotaxi and Optimus don’t scale, Tesla probably deserves a lower multiple.

• If they do scale, current earnings are almost irrelevant.

That puts Tesla in a weird place for the next year or two. Financials won’t fully reflect the future. Demos won’t fully prove it. Sentiment will swing. Narratives will clash.

That doesn’t mean the story is fake. It means the timing is messy.

The Takeaway

Q4 earnings aren’t the thesis.They’re the setup.

The real work is understanding what has to go right for Tesla’s valuation to make sense — and being honest about the risks if it doesn’t.

That’s what this model is for. Not precision. Direction.

If you’re interested in how we think about Tesla as a concentrated position — including volatility, timing risk, and long-term upside — you can learn more at Rebellionaire.

No hype. Just the math, and the uncomfortable questions that come with it.