Tesla’s June Robotaxi Push: Bold Bet or Another Broken Promise?

You see that Tesla AI tweet and think, Wait, are we actually doing this? Like, for real for real doing this? Robotaxis. June. In Austin.

Yeah, that’s the word on the street—and straight from the horse’s mouth too. Elon dropped the mic during Tesla’s Q1 2025 earnings call, saying they’re aiming to launch unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) robotaxis using the good ol’ Model Y as early as June 1. Not 2026. Not “soon™.” But like... next month.

Now, if you just snorted your cold brew, you’re not alone. The June 1 date? Internally at Tesla, they’re calling it “aspirational.” Which is Silicon Valley-speak for don’t hold your breath. Realistically, we might see it slide to June 30—or later—because, you know... software.

So what’s the deal?

Tesla’s already clocked over 1,500 supervised autonomous trips and racked up 15,000 miles in Austin and San Francisco, according to Teslarati. That’s not nothing. They’re running practice laps. Training wheels on. The idea is: if the system doesn’t totally yeet itself into a ditch with a babysitter in the car, maybe—just maybe—it can handle the city solo.

And Austin? That’s the wild west of self-driving law. You don’t need much. Register the vehicle, carry insurance, install a data recorder. That’s it. No permits. No red tape. No one breathing down your neck like in California, where Waymo has to deal with more bureaucracy than a DMV on fire.

Why now?

Well... Tesla’s Q1 profit dropped like a rock—down 71% to just $409 million. Ouch. Investors were squinting at those earnings like is that a typo? Elon basically came out and said, if Tesla doesn’t solve autonomy, the rest of the business is toast. The cars, the solar, the batteries—none of it matters without FSD. That’s where the real value is. That’s what he’s betting the entire company on.

Not a feature. Not a side project. The core thesis.

But here’s the catch: we've heard this before.

Robotaxis were supposed to be a thing in 2019. Then 2020. Then 2022. It’s always “next year.” Meanwhile, Waymo’s already operating a driverless service in Phoenix and parts of LA. Quietly. Carefully. But it’s real.

Tesla’s going a different route. No LIDAR. No geofencing. Just vision and neural nets and vibes. That’s the gamble.

And it’s a spicy one.

Are we finally there?

Hard to say. FSD has made huge strides lately. V12 is smoother, smarter, less robotic. And if you’ve watched recent drives, you’ve probably noticed—it feels more human. Less like a student driver about to take a wrong turn into a lake.

But “unsupervised” autonomy? That’s a different beast. You can’t nap in the front seat unless you’re really sure the car isn’t going to run a red light because the sun was in its eyes. And the stakes? They're sky-high.

Because if one of these things crashes while driving itself... the media’s going to eat it alive. Politicians will pile on. Laws will tighten. Public trust? Gone.

So yeah—Tesla might launch robotaxis in Austin next month. Or next quarter. Or maybe just a limited demo to say they hit the deadline. But it’s all riding on this push.

The question isn’t if Tesla can launch robotaxis. It’s whether they’ll actually work—and how far Elon’s willing to go to prove they will.

Want to make sense of Tesla’s next moves—and how they might affect your portfolio? We help Teslanaires and high-conviction investors stay grounded, smart, and strategic .Reach out to Rebellionaire. Let’s talk shop.