Tesla Stock Takes a Hit—But Why?
Tesla’s stock is down again, and people are freaking out. But should they be? Let’s break this down like we’re just two friends having coffee, because honestly, most of the analysis out there is either robotic or sugar-coated nonsense.
Not Just a Market Dip—Tesla’s Got Its Own Drama
So, Herbert kicks this off by pointing out that Tesla’s stock has taken a beating—down 67 bucks in the last five days, 111 in the last month. Ouch. But Matt comes in hot with a reality check: Tesla isn’t just moving in lockstep with the overall market. There’s this concept called beta, which basically tells you how much a stock moves relative to the market. Tesla’s beta is somewhere between 1.5 and 2, meaning if the market’s down 10%, Tesla should be down 15-20%. Except… Tesla is down way more than that. So this isn’t just “market vibes are bad” territory—this is Tesla-specific drama.
And let’s be real, Tesla’s always got drama. The stock shot up like a rocket post-Q3 results and election hype, hitting almost $480, and now it’s given it all back. That’s not normal. That’s a hype cycle deflating faster than a bad startup pitch. But Matt’s not sweating it. He’s zooming out, looking at what actually matters long term.
Tesla FSD Hits China—And Nobody Notices
Speaking of long term, let’s talk about what should have been a massive stock-moving event: Full Self-Driving (FSD) launching in China. That’s right. Out of nowhere, Tesla dropped the FSD bomb in one of the biggest EV markets in the world, and… crickets. The stock? Down 6% the day it happened. You can’t make this up.
But this is huge. China’s been keeping FSD on a leash for years, and suddenly it’s live, rolling out, and going viral. We’re talking 1.3 billion views on Douyin (China’s TikTok). People are posting videos of Teslas threading through chaotic city streets like seasoned human drivers. And this isn’t some nerfed, “China-safe” version—it’s full FSD. Meanwhile, Waymo and Baidu are still crawling around in their geo-fenced training wheels.
Tesla’s Scale vs. The Competition
And here’s the kicker: China just doubled Tesla’s FSD-capable fleet overnight. Before this, Tesla had about 2.6 million FSD-ready cars in the U.S. Now? 5.1 million globally, because China just added another 2.5 million eligible cars. That’s 2.5 million potential robotaxis. Let that sink in.
So where’s the competition? Huawei? Sure, they’ve got some impressive tech, but it’s only available in their premium models. Baidu? They’ve got 2,000 robo-taxis across multiple cities. Tesla? Millions. The scale isn’t even close.
The Numbers Game: Why This Is a Big Deal
But let’s talk numbers. Matt, being the numbers guy, does some quick math: If just 5% of those newly eligible Teslas in China buy FSD at $8,800 a pop, that’s an $825 million earnings impact. And this wasn’t even in analysts’ models because nobody saw it coming. That’s massive. And yet, the stock’s still taking a dirt nap.
The Market’s Playing Checkers—Tesla’s Playing 4D Chess
What does this all mean? Well, for starters, it proves that short-term stock moves are often pure noise. Right now, sentiment for growth stocks is in the dumpster, so good news doesn’t even register. But here’s the bet: Fast forward a few months, when Tesla’s got real-world robotaxi rides happening, when people can hop in an FSD Tesla in Austin or China and just experience it—what’s the conversation going to look like then?
Right now, the market’s playing checkers while Tesla’s playing 4D chess. You don’t have to love everything Elon tweets (Canada, not a real country? Really?), but at the end of the day, the long-term game is crystal clear. Solving autonomy? That’s the ballgame. And while the stock might be in freefall today, if you’re focused on what actually matters, you might just see what’s coming next.
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