Tesla’s Big Bet on Autonomy: Q1 Earnings Were Rough—But That’s Not the Point

So, Q1 was kind of a mess. Yeah, we said it. Revenue? Soft. Margins? Squeezed. Earnings per share? Oof. But here’s the thing nobody wants to admit: none of that really matters anymore—not if Tesla pulls off what they just outlined on that earnings call.

And yes, we’re serious.

Because while Wall Street was busy crying over spreadsheets and trying to make 31 cents of EPS stretch like a yoga instructor on a deadline, Elon was casually laying out a future where Tesla turns into a damn robot army. One that makes money while we sleep.

Let’s break it down.

It’s Not a Car Company Anymore

Tesla kicked off their earnings call like, “Oh, by the way, we’re rolling out full-blown autonomous robotaxis in Texas—no safety drivers. Starting with 10-20 cars in Austin this summer, and scaling up fast.”

Wait, what?

Yes. Fully autonomous. Zero humans in the driver’s seat. Remote operators on standby just in case, but otherwise, the car’s doing its own thing. Legally. In Texas.

And get this—there’s no cap on how many they can deploy. Cities can’t stop it. State’s cool with it. So as long as nothing goes kaboom in week one, they can double, triple, hell, 10x the fleet basically overnight.

That’s the story.

The One Million Car Flex

Elon said a million robotaxis on the road by end of next year. Cue the PTSD flashbacks—remember 2020? The “we’ll have 1M robotaxis by the end of the year” promise that didn’t happen? Yeah, we do too.

But here’s the difference: the cars exist now. There are millions of Hardware 4 Teslas out there—ready, capable, waiting. This isn’t a dream anymore. It’s a logistical rollout.

There are already thousands of miles driven in Austin alone with FSD. Tesla's been training for this in stealth mode. Now they’re just flipping the switch.

Hardware 4 Is That Good

Don’t get it twisted. This isn’t the same FSD you tested in 2022 and wrote off.

People riding in Hardware 4 cars today are coming out of those drives like they’ve seen the future. Roundabouts? Clean. Lane merges? Smooth. No more random phantom braking or "WTF are you doing?" moments. It works. And it’s not just fanboy hype.

Even Elon’s right-hand guy tweeted he’s been riding robo-taxis all over Austin with zero driver intervention. Called it “remarkable.” Said it’ll blow people away. And we believe him.

The Optimus Twist

Oh, and just for fun, Tesla showed off a factory line where humans build humanoid robots. Yes, humans building robots that will probably replace humans. Wild.

Matt called it Westworld vibes. We’re calling it a taste of what happens when Tesla starts thinking bigger than cars.

Only downside? Optimus might need rare earth metals. And guess who controls that supply chain? Yep—China. So yeah, scaling that could get messy.

But if there's one thing Tesla does well, it’s workarounds. No cobalt? No problem. No LFP batteries? Boom—solved it. So yeah, they’ll figure this one out too.

Earnings Were Bad, but the Market Didn’t Care

Let’s circle back to those numbers.

Tesla missed big. But the stock barely blinked. Why? Because for the first time in a while, investors are starting to realize we’re not in Kansas anymore.

They’re doing the math. What does 30 cents per mile look like compared to Uber’s pricing? What happens when 100,000 robotaxis hit the road and each one pulls in thousands per month? This isn’t a rounding error. It’s a seismic shift.

And that’s why the market rallied—even on bad news.

Wall Street’s Still in Denial

Analysts are out here asking about lidar and glare, like it's 2016. Guys, come on. Tesla’s vision-based system isn’t just better—it’s cheaper, cleaner, and it's already beating humans in fog and rain.

Meanwhile, the analysts asking these questions haven’t even taken a ride in a Hardware 4 car. You know how wild that is? You’re covering a stock that might revolutionize transportation, and you haven’t even tried the product?

Do better.

So What Now?

We're bullish. Not just because of Tesla’s past, but because of what’s right around the corner.

June might be the softest launch of all time, sure. But once those cars start rolling in Texas—and the data proves what Tesla insiders already know—it’s game on.

Cities like Miami, Orlando, Tampa? Next. Then maybe Nevada, Arizona, and yes… even California (with its lovely regulation hurdles).

So yeah, earnings were rough. But if you're still focused on Q1 numbers while Tesla’s loading a robo-fleet into the chamber… you're playing checkers in a chess match.