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Rebellionaire Staff

Why Wall Street’s Tesla Earnings Growth Frenzy? Here’s the Scoop

Tesla Earnings Growth Surges with Wall Street’s Latest Revisions



Just yesterday, Wall Street analysts were in a bit of a frenzy, throwing out upward stock price revisions like confetti. And honestly, it all comes down to Tesla's Q3 call. If you’re following along like we are, you’re probably pretty jazzed about all the futuristic stuff—Optimus, FSD, the dream of a robo-taxi fleet. But what actually got Wall Street’s attention this time? Earnings. Near-term earnings, to be exact. It’s almost like Wall Street just woke up to Tesla’s cash potential in the here and now, not in some far-off, utopian future.


The Wall Street Wake-Up Call


So, what happened? With the Q3 numbers, Wall Street was practically forced to re-evaluate their near-term earnings expectations for Tesla. Historically, the big stock moves haven’t come from Elon’s mind-blowing product reveals but from Tesla smashing near-term earnings forecasts. That’s what’s moving the stock needle this time, too.


And yeah, Tesla’s long-term future is wildly exciting. Optimus? Could be a game-changer. Robo-taxis? Might redefine mobility. But for Wall Street? It’s the earnings surge right now that’s pulling in those upgrades and fueling the 22% stock rally. That’s where the money’s flowing.


Earnings, Revisions, and… My MBA Hat?


Alright, confession time: I'm an MBA. (Keep it low-key; no need to shout it from the rooftops.) So, I threw on my MBA hat to dive into what’s changed in Tesla’s earnings model. Using my trusty old model, I’ve mapped out some new assumptions based on Tesla's latest numbers, and let’s just say Wall Street's pre-Q3 estimates were... conservative.


Before Q3, the Street was thinking Tesla would hit around $3.10 in EPS for next year. But with a few model tweaks, thanks to the Q3 data, it’s clear that earnings could easily reach up toward $3.44 next year. That’s not just a small bump—it’s a near 10% leap.


The FSD Take Rate: What’s Happening Here?


One of the big surprises was the FSD (Full Self-Driving) take rate. Until now, Wall Street kind of assumed FSD take rates would flatline or maybe even drop. But after Tesla’s October 10 event, Elon dropped a tidbit that’s making analysts rethink that stance. The FSD take rate has jumped, especially in new markets, and this isn’t just good news; it’s huge. This little bump alone could push EPS up significantly, showing Wall Street that FSD is more than just tech hype.


Energy's Glow-Up: Did You See Those Gross Margins?


Let’s talk about Tesla’s energy business, where gross margins blew expectations out of the water. Wall Street was betting on maybe 25%, tops. Tesla hit 30.5%. That’s a number that analysts can’t ignore, even if they’re skeptical about whether it’ll stick around. But even if it edges down, those margins are stellar, and they’re proof that Tesla’s energy side is a force to watch.


And remember, Tesla’s energy deployments are scaling faster than anyone guessed, with massive expansion happening at both the Shanghai and Lathrop plants. With these ramping up, Tesla’s hitting deployment targets at levels we weren’t expecting until way later. At this pace, the energy side is poised to rake in profits that could rival automotive.


Let’s Talk Multiples, Shall We?


Now here’s the kicker—high-margin, fast-growing revenue streams deserve high multiples. That’s basic finance. Tesla’s FSD and energy businesses both fit this bill: they’re pulling in serious cash, with high growth rates to match. FSD alone could add around $1 to EPS next year, and if it keeps growing as it is, we’re looking at nearly a billion in pure margin revenue. Energy’s right behind, ready to run up the scoreboard.


So, we’re looking at two high-margin growth engines within Tesla, both cranking up EPS and likely to keep scaling. If you’re an analyst, these aren’t just nice additions—they’re core to Tesla’s profitability, and they’re why Tesla’s stock isn’t showing any signs of cooling off.


Why the Rally?


This rally wasn’t just about another product; it was Tesla earnings growth resetting Wall Street’s expectations. It was about cold, hard cash—near-term expectations getting a massive upward reset. And for Wall Street, seeing Tesla nail these earnings numbers was all the confirmation needed to start bumping up price targets. It’s not about believing in a robo-taxi future (yet); it’s about knowing that Tesla’s making serious money right now, with the potential for even more as FSD subscriptions and energy margins keep climbing.


So, is Wall Street finally seeing Tesla the way we do? Maybe. The rally tells us they’re starting to get it—Tesla’s not just a visionary stock; it’s a profit machine in the making.

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