Out-of-touch Investors and the Coming Reality Check

You could hear the eye rolls when that one analyst piped up—"Uh, why are you guys doing vision-only?" Like, bro. Come on. Go ride in one of the cars before opening your mouth. It’s solved. It’s done. Shut it.

You can tell who’s tried Tesla's latest Full Self-Driving (FSD) and who’s still fumbling around in the dark, asking questions that sound straight out of 2020. And honestly? It's embarrassing at this point​.

Here’s where it gets spicy. Matt tossed out some back-of-the-napkin math, and it’ll either make you insanely bullish—or wonder if we’re all living in a simulation.

Imagine a million RoboTaxis cruising around next year. Not ten years from now. Not some “someday maybe” thing. Next year. At 10,000 miles a quarter per car? That’s 40,000 miles a year. Multiply it out… that's 10 billion miles driven. Now stick a $1.50 per mile price tag on it (and honestly, that’s being conservative). Boom—$15 billion in revenue​. Tesla takes a 30% cut? That’s $4.5 billion. Just from the first million.

And here’s the kicker: that’s dollar-per-share kinda revenue. Real, tangible, slapping-you-in-the-face type impact. Not "we project strong growth potential over the next decade" Wall Street fantasy camp​.

But—because life loves a plot twist—there’s reasons to be skeptical. Scaling that fast is gonna be messy. They’ll need cities that actually allow it, people willing to use it, and somehow they gotta snatch like 6% of Uber's total mileage market basically overnight. So yeah, big if true. But if it is true? All that hand-wringing about how many demo drives they ran becomes background noise. Like arguing about what kind of paper Titanic's tickets were printed on while it’s sinking​.

Farzad threw in another angle: even if Tesla nails RoboTaxis and the bot shows up, don’t expect the stock to moon tomorrow. His take? Until autonomy and Optimus start flashing real profits on Tesla’s P&L, the stock’s probably gonna chill for about a year​. Snooze city.

Matt pushed back (because of course he did). His vibe was more like: the second idiot analysts actually get in one of these driverless cars in Austin? Lightbulb moment. You’ll see them whip up some "breaking news" research note like they discovered fire. “Turns out... Tesla actually solved it!” Groundbreaking​.

It’s the ultimate "everyone was laughing at you until they weren’t" situation. And the fact that Tesla's planning to expand these fleets into multiple cities by year-end? Yeah, the dominoes are lining up​.

Now sprinkle in a little bonus chaos: if the Fed decides to lower rates? That could pour gasoline on the fire. But no promises. The economy’s feeling kinda sketchy right now. Lower consumer spending, possible recession vibes... it’s not exactly the perfect backdrop for an immediate rally​.

So, bottom line? Short-term: meh. Long-term: if you’re paying attention and not listening to clueless analysts, you might just be sitting on something massive.